LASK v Celtic

Scottish champions Celtic and Austrian champions LASK met in a Champions League play-off first-leg showdown at Celtic Park, where the hosts prevailed 3-0. A goal from big Swedish man Ben Nygren in the first half, and two phenomenal strikes from Colombian summer-signing Camilo Durán, saw Celtic take a brilliant result at home. But I believe this tie isn't over and done with, and that LASK will put up quite the fight at home in Austria. Neither team has played a game since they last met.

Why This Isn't Over

LASK did not play poorly in the last tie. They were poor in the decisive moments at the front end of the pitch — 20 shots and 1.58 xG, and a lot of favorable positions that never amounted to a shot. Contrastingly, Celtic got their three goals from 0.98 xG, with two unbelievable individual finishes from Camilo Durán.

Celtic have magic in front of their home fans and can still produce incredible European nights at home. But in recent history they have really struggled playing away from home in the UCL — and really, they have struggled in Europe in all phases, as all Scottish teams have in recent history. They won't have that home energy tonight. Celtic also have the privilege of playing with a 3-0 lead, but they need to avoid being overly cautious: one early goal from LASK could seriously change the tie and put Celtic on the back foot.

LASK now have the advantage of playing at home, where they have been brilliant to start the season. This should not be 3-0 going into tonight to begin with, and the fans will know they need to get behind their team if they are to have a chance of qualifying for the UCL proper.

Celtic will also be without center-back and mainstay Auston Trusty, with Liam Scales or Anthony Ralston the likely player to replace him.

LASK's Threat

LASK play with two dangerous strikers in Moses Usor and Samuel Adeniran. The latter is 6'5" and has 4 goals in 3 matches in the Austrian top flight; the former has 2 goals and 2 assists in 3 matches. They weren't firing in front of goal away in Scotland, but they had so many opportunities to put the Austrians on the board.

Moses Usor carries incredible amounts of speed and tends to play off Adeniran, the two setting up close together in the channel between the LCB and LB (or RCB and RB), with balls over the top coming in from the fullbacks and center-backs. The two strikers had a beating of their defenders and dragged the duo out of position. The Celtic center-back partnership of Trusty and Carter-Vickers were confused and beaten physically by Usor and Adeniran — but LASK just couldn't finish, as they have failed to all season prior. Now with Trusty out and Scales most likely in, the LASK strikers have an even bigger advantage with their pace.

Within the first 10 minutes last week they had created huge scoring opportunities from long balls into the channel, finding the quick Usor or the tall Adeniran (himself no slouch for speed). Trusty and Cameron Carter-Vickers, the Celtic CBs, were both caught for pace and beaten from better starting positions by both LASK strikers. LASK have a huge physical advantage against Celtic and will look to use it in Austria, against a weakened Celtic back four.

The front two can also be more dynamic, with Adeniran staying central and Moses Usor going out to a right-sided winger position. This allows left-sided wing-back George Bello to take up a left-wing position and form a front three. It usually comes as a final-phase attacking system — when they haven't played a long ball out of defense and have decided to build from the back — forming a 4-3-3 in attack, where the double 8s have freedom to push into the box and work around Adeniran.

American Influence

Just briefly, for any Americans out there — this one would be a whole lot of fun to watch. Four Americans started last week, and other than Trusty, the other three will start (LASK: Adeniran and George Bello; Celtic: Cameron Carter-Vickers). Not only that, but they will have the biggest effect on the game, as I expect most of it to be played in LASK's attacking third. Trusty's absence will be felt hugely by Celtic. Just a testament to how far the sport has come in the USA — four relatively unknown players competing at such a high level for two top European clubs.

The Picks

I think it was obvious to tell where my picks would be leaning. LASK's physical advantage in the final third, Celtic's poor recent UCL record, the home crowd, and LASK's goalscoring start to the season should push Celtic right to the end — remember, these are the champions of Austria, and they won't go out without a fight. I think LASK won't only win this match, but push Celtic to the very last minute:

🇦🇹 LASK ML @ 10/11 (Bet365) — 2.5u

🇺🇸 Adeniran Anytime Goal @ 21/20 (Bet365) — 0.75u

🇳🇬 Usor Anytime Goal @ 11/8 (Bet365) — 0.75u

🇦🇹 LASK -1.5 @ 9/4 (Bet365) — 0.5u

🇺🇸 Adeniran First Goal @ 9/2 (Bet365) — 0.25u

🇺🇸 Adeniran 2+ Goals @ 6/1 (Bet365) — 0.25u

Total staked: 5u . Scouted, not guessed.