Today in Football 02/09/26
Matches in Focus
- STVV v Union SG — Jupiler Pro League
- Kilmarnock v St Mirren — Scottish Premiership
- Motherwell v Dundee Utd — Scottish Premiership
Yesterday in Review
Another great day — and football keeps carrying the PPP community. On yesterday's card both main plays landed: Summerville G/A (+1.82u) and McQueen 2+ Shots (+1.66u) — the two 2u anchors — both cashed. Only the two half-unit shots-on-target darts (Toney, McQueen 1+ SOT) missed, so the card banked +2.48u (+49.6% ROI). Another short one today, but the grind never stops.
STVV v Union SG
We're locking onto STVV's danger man and left-sided winger, Illias Sebaoui, who has started the season on fire — 3 assists and 1 goal in 3 matches. He's fired 18 shots in those 3 games, so he clearly has the licence to take as many risks as he wants as the side's prime creator (7 chances created, 2 big chances). Sebaoui has generated around 3 xG so far, so with just the 1 goal he's severely underperforming that number. STVV sit 10th, with 8 scored and 5 conceded — pointing to some defensive fragility.
Union SG are one of the best teams in the league and maybe title favourites. They drew their second game of the season at home but otherwise have looked the part. It'd be foolish not to make them favourites away at STVV today, but both teams score and push forward, so USG won't take this lightly. There should be goals here — USG have conceded just 1 all season — but STVV bring a decent threat at home. Either way I think Sebaoui looks to shine in a big match, and if STVV trail, he and the side take even more risks, on the front foot, hunting shots at the USG goal:
🇧🇪 Sebaoui o/2.5 Shots @ 4/5 (Bet365) — 1u
🇧🇪 Sebaoui Anyt Goal @ 3/1 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Kilmarnock v St Mirren
Kilmarnock are simply the worst team in the league as it stands out of the gate — the worst defensive record (13 conceded) and only 4 goals scored, the most SOT against (29) and 2nd-most total shots against (69). Bottom of the table.
St Mirren have started the exact opposite: 6 scored, 3 conceded, 2nd in the table. #10 and talisman Samuel Ramos comes in off the right (and can switch to the left) and has opened with a goal and 2 assists in 3 games — he creates a ton. Chris Mochrie, central, is averaging ~2 chances created a game but hasn't grabbed his assist yet. And Ismael Kabia, a 20-year-old Dutch loanee from Arsenal, started his first match last week and looked trigger-happy — 3 shots, 1 on target in 75 minutes — cutting in onto his right foot from the left.
St Mirren have goals in them tonight; the books have noticed and priced it accordingly, but here's where I found the value:
🇳🇱 Kabia Anyt Goal @ 4/1 (Bet365) — 0.25u
🇪🇸 Ramos Assist @ 9/2 (Bet365) — 0.25u
🏴 Mochrie Assist @ 9/2 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Motherwell v Dundee Utd
A mid-table clash where one team ships a ton of shots and one man on the other side shoots a lot. Dundee United have allowed 76 shots in 3 matches — just absurd — and conceded 7 goals, which honestly could be worse.
Tawanda Maswanhise, the Zimbabwean international, is the most dangerous player for Motherwell and maybe on the pitch. The two-footed 23-year-old has played mostly off the right to start the season. He's their main goal threat with 9 shots in 3 games and just found his range last time out. At home I think Motherwell score at least twice, with a good chance Maswanhise is one of them:
🇿🇼 Maswanhise Anyt Goal @ 5/4 (Bet365) — 0.75u
Remember to follow @PlayrPropPerson on Twitter for more picks and lineup-based updates.
Total staked: 2.75u . For The Love Of The Game.
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