Today in Football 01/09/26
Matches in Focus
Yesterday in Review
Another winning card — football keeps carrying the PPP community. The main card banked +2.58u (+34% ROI): Gustavo Silva's shot on target landed for +1.88u, Atalanta cruised at home for the ML, and the two-match Jong goals parlay came home. Samu Silva was the blank — his shots and the assist all missed. Onto a short one today.
Al-Hilal v Al Ahli
The books still don't get it about Summerville, and you know what — that's fine with me. He cashed us last week and he's going to do it again: even against a side like Al-Ahli that pulls players from Europe, Summerville is just too good for defenders in this league. Signings like Watkins and Martinelli arriving (don't think they play today) only boost his output this season once they're all starting alongside each other.
Al-Ahli are one of those teams that always splash the cash on European players. Ivan Toney nonchalantly bags 20 goals a season and has started this campaign with 4 goals in 3 games. But they just lost 3-1 to Al-Kholood, which shows there's fragility at the back even with Roger Ibañez and Demiral as a centre-back pairing.
There aren't many reasons for top players to get excited about a move to Saudi (beyond the bank account), so I expect the best ones to turn up. Al-Hilal are at home, and while Al-Ahli are better than most in the league, Al-Hilal should still put up at least 3 goals — Al-Ahli are also a less finished product under a new manager after Matthias Jaissle left for Newcastle. Out of respect for Al-Ahli I'm going as light as my brain says I should. Toney should cause some problems too, I guess:
🇳🇱 Summerville G/A @ 10/11 (Bet365) — 2u
🏴 Toney 2+ SOT @ 7/4 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Portsmouth v Derby
These EFL matches (League Two up to the Championship) take a lot of research to sift through — the sheer number of games is one of the reasons it's so hard to climb the English pyramid, and it makes them tougher to bet 😄.
Derby have a poor defence so far, conceding 7 goals in 3 games — and the underlying numbers tell an even worse story. They're 3rd-highest for shots against per 90 (17.33) and 1st in shots-on-target against per 90 (7.67). Just 1 point from their first 3 games, and it could get rough this season.
Portsmouth have started okay — 3 points from 3 games with much better underlying stats, sitting mid-table for shots for and shots against (and the same for SOT).
We're focusing on 17-year-old Ryan Kavuma-McQueen. Straight out of Cobham, he's already made an impression — he's scored, and more importantly he isn't scared to take defenders on, dangerous off either flank as a natural left-footer. 8 shots in 2 starts, 2 on target, and that'll only climb as he settles into first-team football. Real value against a poor defence, at home under the week-night Fratton Park lights — an absolute fortress. Let's ride Ryan ⭐:
🏴 McQueen 2+ Shots @ 5/6 (Bet365) — 2u
🏴 McQueen 1+ SOT @ 11/10 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Remember to follow @PlayrPropPerson on Twitter for more picks and lineup-based updates.
Total staked: 5u . For The Love Of The Game.
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