Chengdu & Hangzhou — Round of 16 25/09/26
Matches in Focus
- 🇫🇷 Kyrian Jacquet v 🇦🇷 Tomás Martín Etcheverry — Hangzhou R16
- 🇨🇱 Alejandro Tabilo v 🇫🇷 Adrian Mannarino — Chengdu R16
- 🇦🇺 Rinky Hijikata v 🇷🇺 Andrey Rublev — Hangzhou R16
Yesterday in Review
Great fucking day back on the courts in China. Faria ML, Hijikata/Svrcina O21.5 and Shevchenko +4.5 all landed. +3.32u. Let's go PPP community 🔥
Kyrian Jacquet v Tomás Martín Etcheverry
Hangzhou R16 · 06:30 UK · first on Centre Court
Jacquet's the better hard-court player of the two this season. He's 26-13 (67%) on the surface to Etcheverry's 15-13, with a dominance ratio of 1.10 to 1.06 and 51.9% of total points won to 51.0% (last 52 weeks). He breaks at 25.7% where Etcheverry breaks at 18.9%, and takes 39.1% of return points to 35.0%. A lot of numbers that slightly favour Jacquet, but it should be taken into account that he's usually playing worse opposition, and at peak performance I think Etcheverry is the better player. Jacquet's spent a lot of time on hard courts this season and has less rust on him coming into the match-up tomorrow.
Etcheverry's got a bye and hasn't played since the US Open fourth round on 8 September, 17 days. Jacquet beat Vukic 7-6(5) 3-6 6-3 on Thursday in 2 hours 46 minutes on the same court, and taking down Vukic on hard courts isn't easy for the best of players, so it was a good win. Etcheverry's a clay-courter here too: 18-10 on clay this season, 15-13 on hard. Jacquet's used to this surface, this court, this weather, and he's got the energy of a good win.
🇫🇷 Jacquet 1st Set ML @ 6/5 (Bet365) — 1u
That being said, Etcheverry's the better player and he played well on hard courts at the US Open. He's got a great fighter mentality and his quality should keep him in the match once he shakes the early rhythm rust off. Jacquet ran it close against Vukic, an opponent in the same tier of player, and I think in these conditions he finds himself in another even match-up, with the chance to get a really good win under his belt after not qualifying for the US Open.
Hangzhou's 34°C at 13:30 local, humidity 50%, wind under 4 km/h. High heat thins the air and the ball moves through it faster, so serves get more free points and holds come cheaper. That pushes the game count up.
🎾 Jacquet/Etcheverry O22.5 Games @ 4/5 (Bet365) — 2u
Alejandro Tabilo v Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu R16 · 07:30 UK · Centre Court
Tabilo breaks at 17.2% on hard, Mannarino at 18.6%. Tabilo holds 84.3%, Mannarino 77.9%. Adjusted against each other those holds rise to 86.2% and 81.5% (last 52 weeks). Another even match-up with two players who aren't good at breaking, with Tabilo the better server. But like Etcheverry, Tabilo's got a bye, having not played since the US Open on 6 September, 19 days.
They're both left-handed. Tabilo holds 90.2% against lefties and he's 4-0 against them; Mannarino breaks just 13.2% against them, his worst return split, and he beat the left-handed Shang 7-6(9) 6-2 on Thursday. On top of the serving stats and the lefty split, and the year record on hard and overall — Tabilo's 18-15 on hard and 43-31 (58%) across all surfaces, Mannarino 15-21 on hard and 21-34 (38%) overall (both last 52 weeks) — Tabilo is a clear favourite. But Mannarino just has that way about him, doesn't he, the cheeky guy, the man who always turns up when the surface turns to grass. Now it may not be grass, but Shang is a good win in China and he's got that bald aura about him that makes me think he's going to make this a mission for Tabilo, coming off the long time off and shaking off the rust.
Tabilo's hard best-of-threes since 2024 average 24.64 games across 84 matches and clear 22.5 in 52%, up to 24.37 against opponents ranked 31-100. So anyway, he's got that tendency to have long matches against even opposition, which in this situation I believe Mannarino is.
Chengdu's 27°C at 14:30 local, humidity 64%, wind 2-4 km/h. Weather that supports long rallies rather than easy service holds.
🎾 Tabilo/Mannarino O22.5 Games @ 8/11 (Bet365) — 1.5u
Rinky Hijikata v Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou R16 · ~09:30 UK · third on Centre Court
On return Hijikata breaks at 26.1% and takes 38.6% of return points, Rublev breaks at 21.2% and takes 36.7% (both last 52 weeks, hard). On serve Rublev holds 84.0% to Hijikata's 76.6% (same window) — Rublev's hold across all surfaces sits at 83.4% over the last 52 weeks against 86.8% in 2024, his best year. Weighted for each other those holds land at 80.3% Rublev and 76.5% Hijikata.
Rublev's hard-court year: 14-13. He's got a bye and last played the US Open third round on 2 September, 23 days ago. It's been another tough year for Ruby, and watching him can be painful as he crumbles mentally on court in so many matches. He's so talented but it can be sad seeing him play at such a low level. You just do not know who will show up on the day for Ruby.
Hijikata beat Svrčina 7-6(4) 6-4 on Thursday and he's 34-22 on hard for the year. The PPP favourite cashed our over yesterday like he always does. I didn't trust him ML but I should have, and he won as an underdog. Rinky Respects Coin. He's played a ridiculous amount of hard court at different levels all year, and that match yesterday probably helped him shake the rust off from his time away and get some momentum.
I love Rinky to cause Ruby some problems, and honestly I feel wrong not taking him ML again. But Ruby's top level is too far superior for me to feel good about it. These are two players with great highs and great lows, so expect a lot of both tomorrow.
Hangzhou's 34°C falling to 32°C at 16:30 local, humidity around 50%, showers at 48-59% on two forecasts. Same heat as the early match, so the ball still flies and it's Rublev's serve that gains most from it at 84.0% hold, but Rinky benefits as well. Centre court's got a retractable roof — if the showers arrive and it shuts, the court plays even faster.
🇦🇺 Hijikata To Win A Set @ 8/11 (Bet365) — 1.5u
Remember to follow @PlayrPropPerson on Twitter for more picks and in-play updates.
Total staked: 6u . For The Love Of The Game.
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