Today in Tennis 25/08/26
Matches in Focus
- Duckworth v Navone — ATP 250 Winston-Salem
- Bolt v Llamas Ruiz — US Open Qualifiers
- Piros v Alcala Gurri — US Open Qualifiers
- Mikrut v Sanchez Izquierdo — US Open Qualifiers
Yesterday in Review
One tennis play on the card yesterday — a Winston-Salem double, Damm ML × Walton ML at 2.09 for 1u. Both came through in straight sets.
Martin Damm Jr beat qualifier Abdallah Shelbayh 6-4, 7-6, needing a second-set tiebreak to close it out. Adam Walton had the more comfortable afternoon, past Jesper de Jong 6-2, 6-4. Two first-round wins, ticket landed for +1.09u.
Duckworth v Navone
Navone is primarily a clay-courter, like most of his Argentine compatriots, but he has played well during the hard-court swing. He has taken out Berrettini and Vacherot — both of whom have the serving and surface advantage over him. Navone has won at least one match in all of his hard-court tournaments after Wimbledon. In his last win, against Belgian Raphael Collignon in Cincinnati (another player who prefers hard courts), Navone served extremely well, winning first-serve points at 80% with 73% landing in. But in the next round those figures fell around 10% each and he lost to another Belgian, Alexander Blockx — pointing towards some obvious consistency issues on serve. He last played a singles match 10 days ago and could come in a bit rusty.
James Duckworth, on the other hand, loves the hard courts historically, and it is his best surface. He dispatched qualifier Quinn Vandecasteele, losing only 3 games the whole match. Duckworth has been winning the matches he should be winning on paper but has struggled to come up with a big win, with recent losses to Arthur Fery, compatriot Alex de Minaur, and Cam Norrie. Even in his losses his first-serve win rate is good, still hovering around 70–80%. In his Cincinnati Open loss to Fery, he faced only 3 break points over a 3-set match but still came up short.
I believe Navone ML (@ 4/7) is a huge overestimation of his abilities on this surface — a number skewed by recent good results. Duckworth has been playing well, is looking for a big win, and will be motivated to go deep into this tournament. He has the surface advantage, is fresher, and I think is more motivated than Navone, who looks to get his feet wet for the US Open. If Duckworth can serve like he has recently — even in losses — Navone should struggle to get a hold of the match:
Duckworth Set 1 ML @ 1/1 (Bet365) — 1u
Duckworth ML @ 11/8 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Bolt v Llamas Ruiz
Bolt comes in rusty, having not played in 21 days since a loss to Abdullah Shelbayh in the Round of 32 of the Lexington Challenger. But hard courts are his preferred surface, as he is a big server. This hasn't been his best year on hard (13–12 record), but last season he was great, holding a 26–15 record for the year. Hard court is easily his most-played surface on a yearly basis.
Ruiz comes in playing poorly, with 1 win in his last 6 matches. He is a clay-court specialist, but credit to him — he has been working on his hard-court game by playing all these recent tournaments (Cincy, Montreal, Cancun Challenger, etc.).
They have a 1–1 head-to-head, with Ruiz's win coming on clay at the French Open and Bolt's coming three years ago on hard courts at a Challenger. Ruiz ML @ 1/3 on hard courts just doesn't feel right. Recent on-court time and Bolt's last couple of matches probably play a part, and in Bolt's case the three weeks off may have been exactly what he needed. Bolt took a set off Ruiz even on the clay at Roland Garros:
Bolt to Win a Set (Ruiz not to win in straights) @ 8/11 (Bet365) — 1.5u
Bolt ML @ 9/4 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Piros v Alcala Gurri
A battle of two clay-courters — this should be an ugly-ugly affair. Both come straight from Round of 32 exits in Hamburg, which are unsurprisingly clay courts. That was also two weeks ago, so both come in rusty. Piros has played only 2 hard-court matches all year and lost both. Gurri hasn't played one all year, and only 5 in the last three years on tour (2–3 record).
Honestly, I'm shocked Piros is such a big favorite (ML @ 1/4). Gurri has arguably had the better year, they both operate on clay, and both come in having not played in a while. I do think Piros wins this, but the opening phases of the match could be really ugly:
Both Players to Break Serve — Set 1 @ 23/20 (Bet365) — 1u
Mikrut v Sanchez Izquierdo
Same logic as the last play. Two clay-courters who barely spend any time on any other surface. Sanchez Izquierdo hasn't played on hard court all year, and hasn't played tennis for two weeks — his last match was, obviously, on clay. Mikrut, the favorite (ML @ 8/13), hasn't played tennis in two months, since he lost his qualifying Round 1 match at Wimbledon.
In what should be another disgusting match, we play it from two different angles. I don't see why Mikrut is favorite — he hasn't played in two months, hasn't won a match in three, and hasn't won a match this year at any level higher than a Challenger. Yes, Sanchez Izquierdo doesn't play hard courts, but he has at least been playing tennis and has had the better overall year. He comes in with more momentum, if either of them has any:
Both Players to Break Serve — Set 1 @ 5/4 (Bet365) — 0.75u
Sanchez Izquierdo ML @ 6/5 (Bet365) — 0.75u
Total staked: 6u . Scouted, not guessed.
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