Today in Tennis 26/08/26
Matches in Focus
- Sonego v Duckworth — ATP 250 Winston-Salem
- Jacquet v Dougaz — US Open Qualifiers
- Virtanen v Pinnington Jones — US Open Qualifiers
Yesterday in Review
A losing tennis card yesterday (around −2.8u), but a couple of clear lessons in it.
Duckworth saved the day. Both Duckworth plays landed — the Set 1 ML and the match ML — as he took care of Navone just as we'd hoped. He was the one thing that went right, and the reason the card wasn't a full write-off.
Bolt: right read, wrong market. Bolt went down 7-6, 7-5 to Llamas Ruiz in a tight one decided by a first-set tiebreak. He never took a set, so "Bolt to Win a Set" lost — but he only lost by three games, which means Bolt +3.5 games would have cashed. That's the one that stings: the read on a close match was right, we just took the wrong market.
Izquierdo — bad call. The Mikrut / Sánchez Izquierdo angle simply didn't land; both the Set 1 break-serve leg and the Izquierdo moneyline came up empty. Hands up, a poor read on my end.
Onto today.
Sonego v Duckworth
Duckworth saved our tennis card yesterday and played some great tennis against Navone. He now takes on a completely different opponent in the big-serving Italian Lorenzo Sonego. Both served great in their Round-of-32 matchups, which both need to keep doing to play well.
Both will be thinking this tournament is there for the taking, and a 250 win would be great for either of them. Personally, I think James Duckworth has an actual chance of winning this tournament — which feels crazy to say. I think the opponents left in the field will have less motivation, or just aren't as good as him on hard courts.
Sonego is in a similar boat to Duckworth, which is why I believe this is an intense matchup with both players really pushing to win. Picking the winner isn't something I want to do today, lmao. The over is at 23.5, which is too high for me to want to take. But I do think today will be a battle of serves:
1+ Tiebreak in the Match @ 1/1 (Bet365) — 1u
Jacquet v Dougaz
Jacquet comes into this having had a mixed last month — a win here and a win there, but no real consistency. He beat Lautaro Midón in two sets easily, as a huge favorite. He's interesting when it comes to surface preference: in some earlier years he preferred clay, but last year he played more hard-court matches than any other and played well (2025 hard-court record: 20-8). This year he hasn't really specialized in anything, playing a balanced surface schedule.
Dougaz is having his best year since 2023. The 29-year-old Tunisian is a hard-court specialist and is having a great year on his preferred surface (21-7). He's been playing with something to prove and has good momentum after reaching the final of a Challenger in Astana. He won his last-round matchup in two sets against an Argentine clay-court specialist — just like Jacquet.
Dougaz won the only head-to-head two years ago in three sets. Based on momentum, surface preference, and the drive Dougaz has been showing, I like him to cover:
Dougaz +3.5 Games @ 5/6 (Bet365) — 1.5u
Virtanen v Pinnington Jones
Virtanen relies a lot on his serve, and recently it's been up and down. He's prone to long sets and tiebreaks. He loves quick surfaces (grass is probably his favorite), where his serve hits hard — and it's the US Open, so I expect his serve to turn up today. He won his last-round match against Ugo Blanchet in two sets.
Pinnington Jones has been playing better recently, reaching the semifinal of the Challenger in Brownsberg. He beat Trevor Svajda in two sets, needing a tiebreak in the first.
Pinnington Jones is playing well, but I expect Virtanen's serve to be on point today, leaning on it against a better mover. I like both to come out strong:
Set 1 Over 9.5 Games @ 8/11 (Bet365) — 1.25u
Set 1 Over 12.5 Games @ 10/3 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Total staked: 4u . For The Love Of The Game.
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