Today in Tennis 27/08/26
Matches in Focus
- Marozsan v Duckworth — ATP 250 Winston-Salem
- Virtanen v Dimitrov — US Open Qualifiers
- Dougaz v Guerrieri — US Open Qualifiers
- Three-Leg Parlay — US Open Qualifiers
Yesterday in Review
Started great with Dougaz, then it went downhill. Otto Virtanen was barely playing, especially in the first set — which killed both Set 1 overs — and then of course the second set ran all the way to a tiebreak. I liked James Duckworth and, like a fool, didn't just back him; of course he breaks Sonego right before the tiebreak. Bad call from me.
Tennis finished −1.25u on the day (−31% ROI). Time to bounce back: finals qualifying day, plus the QF in Winston-Salem.
Marozsan v Duckworth
Marozsan is absolutely the better player here. But we've been riding James Duckworth (pause) since the start of this tournament. Energy is high and he's serving well. Marozsan needed three sets to get through Damm Jr. — who, even as a serve-bot, wasn't serving at his best (even though he'd just beaten paddleball player Medvedev). Hard courts are the surface both players compete on the most.
I think James has a real chance at winning in Winston-Salem, as I said yesterday — then idiotically didn't bet him. He's locked in, motivated, and playing well on his favorite surface. Marozsan will be content with the win in the last round and some momentum into the US Open, where he'll want to be at his highest level. I think James is the more motivated to go deeper, and the more dangerous right now because of his serve:
Duckworth Moneyline @ 6/4 (Bet365) — 0.75u
Virtanen v Dimitrov
I've been scared to bet on Dimitrov because of his injury and health problems, but he's been playing great over the last month — especially his serving. He faced only one break point against Skatov in his last round, and across his two qualifying matches his first serve is landing over 80% and he's winning around 85% of first-serve points.
Otto was absolutely gifted that match yesterday by Pinnington Jones. After a first set where he looked like he couldn't care less about being there, he came back and won while barely moving — just standing and shooting. He cooked our tennis card yesterday and somehow pulled it out… bastard.
The quality difference today will be huge. Barring some unforeseen health problem for Dimitrov, I think he walks Otto like his dog. That stand-still-and-smack-the-shit-out-of-the-ball routine won't win Otto a match against someone with top-15-in-the-world level. Otto has faced 13 break points over his last two matches, and for a guy who leans on his serve, that stinks. Let's go, Dimi:
Set 1 — Dimitrov Breaks & Virtanen Doesn't @ 21/20 (Bet365) — 1.25u
Dimitrov -3.5 Games @ 1/1 (Bet365) — 0.75u
Dougaz v Guerrieri
Dougaz cashed us yesterday on the spread against Jacquet and ended up winning. I'll be real — it was more poor play from Jacquet that got Dougaz through, but he did hit some incredible returns in huge moments, so props to him. Dougaz is having one of his best years in a while and is 22-7 on hard courts.
Guerrieri has needed three sets in both of his last qualifying matches to get through. He's serving decently and showing resilience — 14-3 on hard courts this year, so he's clearly been feeling good on this surface.
Truthfully, I just believe Guerrieri is the better player. Both are in good rhythm, but I think Dougaz's road ends here:
Guerrieri ML @ 1/1 (Bet365) — 1u
Three-Leg Parlay
Three US Open qualifying matches rolled into one — just three guys who should win based on momentum, surface preference, and how they're playing.
Piros v O'Connell — O'Connell ML. Piros has played well but is a clay player who barely touches other surfaces. O'Connell is also playing well, and on his preferred surface. I like O'Connell ML here, but not enough to play it straight.
Wong v Lajovic — Wong ML. Wong plays most of his matches on hard court, which makes the US Open the most important Grand Slam of the year for him, in my opinion. He's 32-19 on hard court just this year. Lajovic is a clay-courter who's played okay on hard courts (8-5), but there's a huge advantage to Wong here.
The third leg is Dimitrov's moneyline from the match above.
🇦🇺 O'Connell ML · 🇭🇰 Wong ML · 🇧🇬 Dimitrov ML @ 2.93 (Bet365) — 0.75u
Total staked: 4.5u . For The Love Of The Game.
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