US Open — Day 2 31/08/26

Matches in Focus

• Nakashima v Baez — US Open R1
• Dimitrov v Popyrin — US Open R1
• Rodionov v Mpetshi Perricard — US Open R1
• Safiullin v Alcaraz — US Open R1

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Yesterday in Review

A horrible start at the US Open. Vit Kopriva was up 4-2 in the second set, then choked and dropped about 12 games in a row — which torched the Etcheverry/Kopriva over 3.5 sets, and with it the two-leg overs parlay. And Adam Walton got absolutely shafted by Wu, so the Walton ML went down too.

The saving grace: Landaluce v Fearnley ran too late to finish last night and is still live — it can rescue the whole card on its own. Landaluce leads 4-3, a break up in the first set, which keeps Landaluce ML & O3.5 Sets (2/1, 0.5u) and the Landaluce/Fearnley · Van Assche/Norrie overs parlay (2.21, 1u) both alive. Come on, Martin. Onto Day 2.

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Nakashima v Baez

Nakashima is in the form of his life — a 1000 final in Montreal and a 1000 semi in Cincinnati. He's had a week of rest and should come in looking to make some noise on home soil.

Baez is a clay-courter who's played decently over the past month, reaching a Challenger final before losing to Hubert Hurkacz — obviously no slouch. But recently in the Winston-Salem 250 Round of 16 he had to retire against JM Cerúndolo with injury, and that was only 5 days ago.

The combo of Nakashima's momentum, Baez's surface preference, and the health questions means I think Naka looks to get this done quickly. Their only head-to-head was two years ago at Wimbledon, where a worse Nakashima still took it in three straight sets:

🇺🇸 Nakashima -2.5 Sets @ 10/11 (Bet365) — 1u

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Dimitrov v Popyrin

Dimitrov finally comes in with a bit of momentum after a long stretch of being on and off with injuries. He had to go through qualifying and got blessed with a walkover against Otto Virtanen (who's now in the main draw as a lucky loser). Dimi was serving phenomenally through quali. I'd normally worry a touch about his fitness over five sets, but he dispelled that a couple of months ago at Wimbledon.

Big Pop has also had an injury-riddled season. At his best he's a giant-slayer with crazy shot-making and a huge serve — exciting to watch — but the injuries mean we haven't seen nearly enough of him. He won two matches at the Montreal 1000, his best run in a while, but recently retired hurt at the Quebec Challenger just 11 days ago.

I think the extra day or two of rest is exactly what Dimitrov needed. He's playing well, his ceiling is higher than Popyrin's, and he won't have to hit it against a player who isn't healthy and has no rhythm:

🇧🇬 Dimitrov -1.5 Sets @ 10/11 (Bet365) — 1u

🎾 Dimitrov ML x Nakashima -1.5 Sets @ 1.99 (Bet365) — 2u

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Rodionov v Mpetshi Perricard

Perricard has lost his last 5 in a row and has played just 3 times in the last 60 days. It's been a poor year overall, and his monster serve hasn't been able to paper over the deficiencies elsewhere.

Rodionov had to grind all the way through qualifying and has generally played well on hard courts this year.

I'd take basically anyone at pick-'em odds against GMP right now — the Challenger tour is calling this man's name:

🇦🇹 Rodionov ML @ 10/11 (Bet365) — 1u

🇦🇹 Rodionov ML & O3.5 Sets @ 15/8 (Bet365) — 0.5u

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Safiullin v Alcaraz

Roman to win a set against the great Spaniard is a popular pick today, with Carlos coming off injury. Personally I don't see much value in just Roman +2.5 sets — the odds have plummeted. But as always with rust (or surface rust — Carlos hasn't played on anything in months), there's value in set one:

🇷🇺 Safiullin 1st Set ML @ 11/5 (Bet365) — 0.5u

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Remember to follow @PlayrPropPerson on Twitter for more picks and in-play updates.

Total staked: 6u . For The Love Of The Game.