US Open — Day 3 01/09/26
Matches in Focus
- Giron v Buse — US Open R1
- Guerrieri v De Minaur — US Open R1
- Cerundolo v Gea — US Open R1
- Comesana v Cobolli — US Open R1
- Basavareddy v Schoolkate — US Open R1
- Jodar v Kokkinakis — US Open R1
- Fritz v Blanch — US Open R1
Yesterday in Review
Started great — Rodionov took care of business in three straight against GMP, and Safiullin had his chances in the first set against Carlos but couldn't take them. Nakashima destroyed Baez exactly as we called it. Then the kick in the stomach: Dimitrov collapsed against Big Pop again — he must have been carrying an injury, I've never seen him serve so many double faults. The tennis card came in at −2.18u (−36.3% ROI). Football bailed us out again, banking +2.58u (+34% ROI), so we finished green on the day overall — but we've got to do better on the courts. Let's get it done, PPP, and have a good day.
Giron v Buse
Buse had a hard-fought 250 title right before this on the Winston-Salem hard courts — not his preferred surface, but he took down British #1 Arthur Fery in the final, another big step in a promising career. The downside: it was hot and humid in Winston-Salem and he played a lot of matches in that sticky weather right before this. In fairness he's had three days' rest thanks to the drawn-out R128, so he should still be fresh and feeling good about his game.
Giron is the more seasoned pro with a lot of US Opens under his belt, but he hasn't played much or well lately — his last win came about a month ago, in three sets over Pablo Llamas Ruiz, and he's had some bad losses coming in.
I think Buse takes it, but I don't see it being easy. Giron will lift for a home Slam and has the experience to turn it up when he needs to. Buse has the better mentality and form right now — hopefully his body's recovered:
🇵🇪 Buse ML & O3.5 Sets @ 7/5 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Guerrieri v De Minaur
There's obviously a huuuuge level gap here — De Minaur is a consistent top-tenner, Guerrieri barely cracks the top 200. But Guerrieri's had a great year on hard courts (15-3). He can be weird about surfaces, but hard is usually his preferred.
This has been De Minaur's least consistent year in a long time. He's an elite mover and one of the best baseline defenders in the game, but his mentality and service games have been up and down. He hasn't played in two weeks and, like his whole season, hasn't built much momentum.
This should be over in three, and Guerrieri won't scare De Minaur — but the spread is crazy, and it could be covered even if De Min wins comfortably:
🇮🇹 Guerrieri +9.5 Games @ 8/11 (Bet365) — 1u
Cerundolo v Gea
Géa has soared up the rankings this season, a hard-court specialist having a great year on his preferred surface (20-3). He got in as a lucky loser after a tough qualifying final against Basavareddy, where he lost handily.
JM is the better player overall. Clay is his favoured surface, but he's shown real ability on hard. No clue who wins this one, but it should be a long match.
Comesana v Cobolli
Huge level gap, especially on this surface. Cobolli has been showing up big at the Slams this year and probably feels another deep run building. Comesaña's game doesn't translate to hard courts — he's played just four matches in the last couple of months, winning one, and has only three hard-court wins in eleven. Cobolli already beat him earlier this year in better conditions for Comesaña (slower clay):
🎾 Cerundolo/Gea O3.5 Sets & Cobolli -1.5 Sets @ 2.16 (Bet365) — 1u
Basavareddy v Schoolkate
A fun battle of two good youngish players who came through qualifying, both with real potential to be ATP-level regulars. Basavareddy is the deserved favourite, but his level can fluctuate mid-match and he can get frustrated.
Schoolkate has played about double the hard-court matches Basa has this season, and more recently. They met last year on hard, Basa winning in two, but both are better now. Not sure why Basa's so heavily favoured, but this should be fun — take the sets over and move:
🎾 Basavareddy/Schoolkate O3.5 Sets @ 4/6 (Bet365) — 1.5u
Jodar v Kokkinakis
Kokkinakis is a huge server — maybe one of the biggest on tour — which keeps him in matches, but he's been injured basically all year, barely played, and hasn't been on court in about three weeks or spent much time on hard.
Jodar is one of the young up-and-coming stars, and his game suits this surface and these conditions — he shouldn't have much trouble. But Kokkinakis's serve, Jodar's youth, and a price that isn't great keep me off a straight 3-0 Jodar out of fear (god-damn softy 🐰).
Fritz v Blanch
One of the best in the game against someone having a horrible year and levels below. Blanch hasn't won a match in two months — a seven-loss streak — and that was at Challenger level. Fritz should be fresh and locked in on staying that way as he pushes for a first Slam:
🎾
Jodar -1.5 Sets& Fritz -2.5 Sets @ 1.4 (Bet365) — 3u↻ Jodar's leg voided — the play now rides on Fritz 3-0 alone, 3u to return 4.2u (1.4).
Remember to follow @PlayrPropPerson on Twitter for more picks and in-play updates.
Total staked: 7u . For The Love Of The Game.
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