US Open — Day 4 02/09/26
Matches in Focus
- Shelton v Hurkacz — US Open R2
- Etcheverry v Fearnley — US Open R2
- Shapovalov v Van Assche — US Open R2
- Prizmic v Paul — US Open R2
- Merida v Rublev — US Open R2
- Nakashima v Michelson — US Open R2
Yesterday in Review
Finally a decent day — yesterday's card sits at +1.20u (+21.8% ROI) so far. Cobolli did Cobolli things and torched the Cerundolo/Gea + Cobolli parlay, but Basavareddy/Schoolkate hit the sets over, and with Jodar's leg voided, Taylor Fritz took care of business 3-0 for the +1.20u. Two are still riding from yesterday: Buse ML & O3.5 (0.5u) and Guerrieri +9.5 Games (1u) — 1.5u still out. Onto Day 4.
Shelton v Hurkacz
I've never been the biggest Bennyboy Shelton fan, but this might be one of his best chances at a Slam. He's playing well despite a terrible showing in Cincy — a first-round loss, for him, to Jaime Faria — but the best players don't carry a result from a couple of weeks back the way the rest of the tour does, and Ben feeds off the crowd with the best of them. He's got one of the harder routes to the final and already scrapped past known giant-slayer Tallon Griekspoor, dropping the first set 6-1 before recovering in four and winning 67% of pressure points (10/15). He won 86% of first serves against Grieksy but faced more break points than his opponent — the return game can always improve.
Huby hasn't had his best year, and injuries have nagged the gentle giant over the past couple of seasons. But he's in a good moment — 5 wins in a row, including a Challenger title in Cancun — and beat Džumhur comfortably in four, 61% first serves in and 68% of first-serve points won. On the slower US Open hard courts, that serve needs to be firing.
Shelton should win, but this'll be tough. Huby's experienced and feeling healthy and confident again. I think it goes long, with few breaks and a couple of tiebreaks:
🎾 Shelton ML / O0.5 Tiebreaks / Huby Wins a Set @ 19/10 (Bet365) — 0.5u
🎾 Shelton/Huby O1.5 Tiebreaks @ 9/4 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Etcheverry v Fearnley
I watched both first-rounders closely, and Fearnley is lucky to be here — he was down 5-1 in the fourth (and 2-1 in sets) against Landaluce and somehow broke twice, came back, and won in five. Seriously impressive mentality from Jacob — and a huge collapse from the kid that torched our Landaluce ML & O3.5 Sets (@2/1).
Etcheverry was seriously impressive against Vit Kopriva. Hard isn't Tomás's favourite surface, but he's a quality player and dangerous in the big ones. He took care of Vit in three and bageled him in the third — another one that sank a past play (that Etcheverry/Kopriva over). Tomás is just the better player, and sometimes simple is best; the slower, humid New York courts suit his rally game:
🇦🇷 Etcheverry ML @ 8/11 (Bet365) — 1.5u
Shapovalov v Van Assche
Van Assche has been playing well, and hard is his preferred surface — he took down Norrie in four and looked solid, winning 84% of first-serve points, facing only 4 break points, and taking 57% of second-serve return points.
As was once foretold, Shap and Kecmanovic had a battle early — but there was only ever going to be one winner. Shap got Kec to 14 break points, won 85% of first serves, and got on top of the Kec serve. Still, in the months before, Shap's been inconsistent with some bad losses even at home in Canada, and a chunk of that last win was Kec playing like rubbish. Van Assche is playing well but is hard to fully trust in the big moments. This is an insanely even matchup with ebbs and flows like Shap's last one:
🎾 Shapovalov/Van Assche 5 Sets @ 12/5 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Prizmic v Paul
Totally lopsided in Paul's favour. Dino's a clay player who's barely featured lately — only 5 matches in 60 days — and needed five sets past Shevchenko to get through. Paul had a tricky opener with hard-court specialist Coleman Wong, dropping the first in a tiebreak before easing through in four. Tommy always steps up for the big North American swing — he's a level above Dino every which way, and on his surface in front of home fans he'll want this done fast:
🎾 Shapovalov/Van Assche O3.5 Sets & Paul -1.5 Sets @ 2.14 (Bet365) — 1.25u
🇺🇸 Paul 3-0 @ 6/5 (Bet365) — 0.5u
Merida v Rublev
A tight one. Merida has come on strong the past couple of months; Andrey is always up and down, as he's been for a while. Ruby won an absolute marathon in five over Otto Virtanen in R1, and coming in short of singles reps, a win like that is good for a mentality we know can be… fiery. Merida's played far more and is in a good groove — he dispatched Márton Fucsovics in three, impressive given how well Márton does over long formats.
This match will ebb and flow with Ruby's level — moments of pure brilliance, then a few games where rackets are flying. I lean Merida, but with Ruby's swings I think it goes long, like Shap/Van Assche:
🎾 Merida/Rublev 5 Sets @ 5/2 (Bet365) — 0.25u
Nakashima v Michelson
Naka is Mr. Reliable for us right now, and he's in the form of his life — a genuine dark horse here. I don't think Michelson causes him problems; Michelson likes to sit in long baseline rallies off his backhand, but none of that matters when Naka's game is firing at every level:
🇺🇸 Nakashima -3.5 Games @ 5/6 (Bet365) — 2u
🎾 Merida/Rublev O3.5 Sets & Nakashima ML @ 2.21 (Bet365) — 1.5u
Remember to follow @PlayrPropPerson on Twitter for more picks and in-play updates.
Total staked: 8.25u . For The Love Of The Game.
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